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Home Community Discussion BoardsBulletin BoardOff TopicBritain's economy to become largest in Europe - and will grow even more if we leave EU

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Brielle Mae Neal

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Country: Malaysia
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Britain's economy to become largest in Europe - and will grow even more if we leave EU
Dec 28, 2013

The think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK economy will outstrip France and Germany within two decades even if Britain stays in the EU.

But while leaving the organisation would have initial negative consequences, the CEBR's chief executive Douglas McWilliams suspects "that over a 15-year period, it would probably be positive."

Britain is set to vote on a referendum on EU membership in 2017.

The report predicts the UK's GDP will first move to fifth place ahead of France by 2018 before leapfrogging Germany around 2030.

However, despite being forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US, it will fall behind the accelerating economies of India and Brazil.

"Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest Western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies," the report said.

But added: "If the euro were to break up, Germany's outlook would be much better.

"A Deutsche Mark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years if ever."

It added that a factor driving the UK's move ahead of Germany is the assumption of a falling value for the euro, Germany's falling population and the UK's rising population.

The gap between the two countries will fall from almost £610billion in 2013 to just £183billion in five years.

The UK's GDP will grow from more than £1.59trillion in 2013 to £2.6trillion in 2028, compared to China which is predicted to be in top position with a GDP of more than £20.5trillion, ahead of the US with an estimated £19.7trillion

Japan will fall from its steady position in the global league of third to fourth by 2028, overtaken by India and followed by Brazil, Germany and the UK.

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