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Ian Swain

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Future of Technology=horrible. . .
Nov 7, 2001

Because it'll be dominated by Microsoft. Unless the US or some other government does something soon, Microsoft will continue to use its operating system dominance to move into other markets. And dominance by 1 company kills innovation.

I think someone needs to break Microsoft into 3 separate companies:
- Operating System
- Software
- Web properties

Any other thoughts?

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Robert Margolis

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Quantum Computers?
Nov 7, 2001

If quantum computers are perfected my guess is that even Bill Gates will have his hands full. Technologies that change rapidly can create many surprises.


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Robert Margolis

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Re: Future of Technology=horrible. . .
Nov 9, 2001

Monopolies usually fail in the long run when they fail to keep up or make too many enemies. Gates may be able to keep up, however my understanding is that the programming of quantum computers (assuming they go commercial) has special differences and capabilities. It will be interesting to see how events unfold.

If enough people go against Bill Gates, eventually his monopoly will be broken. Carnegie, Rockefeller, and Morgan all lost their monopolies even while having greater relative wealth and influence than Mr. Gates.


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Ian Swain

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Re: Future of Technology=horrible. . .
Nov 9, 2001

Hmmmm. . . I would argue that Microsoft differs from those past monopolies in the way that its industry changes so fast that government can't keep up. You make a good point, though, the groundswell is building against Microsoft. . .

I'll admit I don't know much about quantum computing. Can you post a link to a good resource?

Thanks.........


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Ian Swain

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won't stop Microsoft. . .
Nov 9, 2001

We're already aware of quantum computers, and they're years from being commercially viable. What will stop Bill Gates from seeing "the next big thing" coming and exploiting his existing monopoly to move into quantum computing?

Remember: st first he missed the boat completely on the Internet, but he sure did catch up!


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Robert Margolis

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Re: Future of Technology=horrible. . .
Nov 10, 2001

Here is a link to Caltech lecture notes on quantum computing. According to the Economist, the largest machines are 7 qubits.

http://theory.caltech.edu/people/preskill/ph229/

Of course, it will be a while to see if it goes commercial, however it sounds as though we are learning about the physics of information just from the attempts.


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Mike

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microsofts next monopoly.
Nov 23, 2001

bill gates has been saying for a long time about those tablet pc's (kinda like a laptop screen but you write on it)

Saw one today. definitely the next microsoft venture.

Can it be stopped?

- - -
Pred.


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Ian Swain

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maybe. . .
Dec 5, 2001

Here's a good article on the new generation of tablet PCs:

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-7900125.html

My opinion? I'm still not sure whether this concept will succeed or not, but if anyone has pockets deep enough to push it, it's Microsoft.

As well, the tablet OS needs to focus on doing a few things well:
- handwriting recognition
- transfering data to/from other devices
- presenting data in different formats

If MS supplies an OS that does these things, I think they'll be pretty unstoppable. Otherwise, someone else might come along and snatch up the market. Remember the Apple Newton? It debuted with poor handwriting recognition, got a bad rep, and Palm was able to beat Apple.

Haven't really given this a lot of thought though. Any other opinions?


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Mike

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samsung
Dec 20, 2001

samsung seems to be releasing a lot of high tech, new technology mobile phones onto the market in south-east asia (including australia - for once)

We're finally able to get a double screen mobile phone. As well as video-mobiles.

It seems promosing, but Samsung has never entered the Australian market as viciously as it has before, and i feel its going to wear off. Put simply - Australians lose interest in high technology because our telco's dont support the networks of high-tech communications.

This can be explained by comparing Canada's network - where CableTV is extremely popular, relatively cheap and accessed by millions.

Where in Australia, just over 1 million people have it, and even less are able to access it.

Theres a shortage of entrepreneurship in Australia in reference to technology enterprises.

Really annoying.

- - -
Pred.


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Ian Swain

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Re: The Wireless Future
Dec 27, 2001

Originally posted by david
Can these two devices be combined into one? I think ideally they should be separate. When you have one device that tries to do both, you get a clunky cell phone and a too-small organizer. Maybe have one device where the cell phone part can detach.......


David: I think most mobile phone manufacturers could avoid a lot of failed products over the next few years if they'd just read your post, especially this statement. Hell, I share your views just about exactly. If you haven't read it yet, I recommend a book called The Invisible Computer by Donald A. Norman. It helped my crystallize a lot of ideas I'd been throwing around about the topic of tech usability.

I'd love to try out one of NTT DoCoMo's i-Mode phones to see how they work - Japan is now heads and shoulders ahead of the rest of the world in this arena. The US and Europe need to be smart to catch up.

In the past, when I read about the lead that Europe and Japan have in cell phone penetration and technology, my first instinct was that we North Americans are behind and need to catch up. More recently, I've started to rethink this.

I just got a cell myself, and I'm still learning how to integrate it into my life. I'm determined not to be one of those people with the phone that goes off in awkward places and annoys everyone. Just learning what social situations to turn it on and off, how it changes the nature of my phone conversations, and the effect it has on my lifestyle is taking a few months. And I'm someone who's pretty used to tech in my life.

I'm starting to think that the countries that are ahead in mobile phones and the rest of the tech game aren't the ones who have the highest adoption rates, they're the ones that use it RIGHT. When I read about Europeans sending dozens of SMS messages a day on those little keypads, I wonder whether it really adds much to their quality of life. Likewise, the biggest seller over the DoCoMo network is new ringtones for DoCoMo phones. Does that really bring anyone in Japan closer together?

The real winners are the countries that adopt technologies at a comfortable rate that improves their quality of life. We may not have (rather shaky) 3G networks yet here in North America, but I don't need them for what I use my cell for anyways: checking in with the homies, talking to my girlfriend, taking calls when I'm en route, etc.

Obviously, I'm generalizing a lot, but I thought I'd pour out my thoughts on this in a stream of conciousness. I guess my point is that HOW a society uses tech, the social aspect, often matters more than WHAT tech they're using.

Ian.


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