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Raymond M. Kristiansen
Joined: Mar 1, 2002
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Possible scenarios for Iraq
December 1, 2003 - 04:22 AM
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1) The US stays in Iraq untill mid 2004 and then hands over power to an interim government with mostly US-friendly people, just like they did in Afghanistan. This solution is good in One way, but bad in several others. Hopefully there will not be that many battles once foreign military forces are out of Iraq, but - how will Democracy be introduced?
2) The US suffers so many losses in Iraq before mid 2004 that they grit their teeths and become even more focused on "winning over" the terrorism, and decides to stay there. At great peril to all.
3) The US decides that NATO, or (hopefully) the United Nations are more fit to control events in Iraq, and we see a gradual stronger involvement by the UN.
I have not read many recent analysises of Iraq's possible future. My hope is that peace will come to the region, but, realistically thinking, no, that will not happen anytime soon.
What do you think? What will be the situation in Iraq in 2 years for instance?
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Hussein Macarambon
Joined: Aug 11, 2003
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Re: Possible scenarios for Iraq
December 4, 2003 - 01:10 AM
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I like number 1 but I dont like a civil war to happen once the US is out of Iraq. That may happen if the US designs a government with an even number of members from each tribe because the Shi'ites constitute 60% of the population and therefore want more representation. However, if the US would leave this responsibility to the Iraqis, then a referendum may turn out to be another failure since the Iraqis are not well-unified and general elections wont really help in choosing the right leaders.
I also like number two because it sounds like a story my Mum used to tell me in bed, but Im quite skeptical about this cuz "winning over terrorism" is like my mum saying "goodnight son, the mouse ate the last page of your book."
I am left with option number three but I cant go on typing any further because I have my fingers crossed. Seriously, Number three is the best out of all three options. Unless you have more. Do you?
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