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Mikael
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The world in 20 years?
November 18, 2003 - 07:38 AM
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At the McGill Model United Nations, in January 2004, we are going to be simulating three committees set in the year 2024. These committees are: The Organization for International Security and Cooperation (replacement to NATO), the Asian Council for Security and Intelligence (ACSI) and the UN Security Council.
The format of the committees are that they're in a three-way joint crisis. That means that the three committees interact with each other in real-time. Delegates from various committees can send messages to each other, and they are presented with crises and news simultaneously. They then get to respond to this news and decide how their respective committees should act.
For this committee, then, we are writing a 'history' of the years 2004 to 2024, so that the delegates have the historical basis for the crises we'll be presenting them with.
My question to you is the following: how do you think the world will have changed in 20 years?
I ask this question with a few specific things in mind - for example, the composition of the UN Security Council. Will it have changed and if so what do you think the changes will be?
What form will European Union integration take by the year 2024?
What major events will shape the way countries interact? Will terrorism continue to be a major item on the global agenda? How do you see the next twenty years playing out?
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Roentgen
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 18, 2003 - 09:58 AM
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Very interesting. I think terrorism will still stay on top of the global agenda and its link to poverty will be stressed even more. The so-called terrorists come from polities whose economic conditions are not at par with the West,and whose political freedom is very limited. So while security thrusts focus on combating terrorism, much attention should also be given to eliminating poverty in less developed countries. In the war against terror,as well as in other battles however, more sophisticated tools will be used and that is one sad and troubling development in the use of technology.
As is happening now, there would still be calls for reform in multilateral institutions, including the UN Security Council. The present set-up is clearly outdated. There should be representatives from more countries, making the body more democratic. Who knows in the next 10 years or so, we would see more permanent members in the Security Council, like Brazil (which is playing a leading role in economic issues) and India? The same could be said of WTO. The relative success of the Group of 21 during the WTO Cancun Talks, could propel and inspire the formation of similar groupings from less developed countries to have common stands on issues such as debt relief and development assistance and security.
There will also be more regional economies, in the form of EU. ASEAN will have a regional economy, a free-trade area in the next 10 years. Economic integration will be the key due to economies of scale. And since traditional borders are hardly significant now due to economic zones which spread beyond national boundaries (like the East Asian Growth Area of Brunei, southern Philippines and northern Malaysia), security priorities have to be reviewed in light of these developments. At the very same time, integration could also pose problems like the 1997 financial crisis which devastated economies.
Other security threats would be AIDS and other disease mutations. Advances in medicine however look promising. Climate change could be another issue.
BTW, what is the Asian Council for Security and Intelligence for?
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Mikael
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 18, 2003 - 10:12 AM
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Thanks a lot for your comment - very interesting! What kind of setup do you think the Security Council would have, specifically?
The Asian Council for Security and Intelligence is a response to the development of the OISC - a way for Asian countries to coordinate their security policy in the face of a changing world. The 'Beijing Charter' (the future document creating the ACSI) defines the scope and mandate of ACSI. The official mandate of ACSI is “to promote greater stability and peace through coordinated action in security and economic matters.”
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Hussein Macarambon
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 19, 2003 - 01:23 AM
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I totally agree with the regional economic bloc formation, that this will be more apt especially for the Asia Pacific region. I hope this will bring change toward a better WTO and a just IMF.
I was just wondering what the makeup of ACSI would be. Does this include the Middle and the Near East, since Im not quite sure if these regions will be out of its present political turmoil in 20 years? I do think that OIC member countries need a better intelligence cooperation in the form of some 'functional' international treaty group to thwart terrorist attempts in the future or perhaps future attacks from countries like Israel or the US.
No offense, but I dont think there will be any significant changes in the UNSC in the near future. Besides I really dont think there is much need for it if eventually the UN regains its authority or if this Organization for International Security and Cooperation does work out to replace NATO. Please tell me more about OISC though.
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Roentgen
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 19, 2003 - 05:48 AM
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While changes in the UNSC membership might really be wishful thinking, the success of the Group of 21 in WTO shows that less developed countries,when united, could really be a potent force. To enlarge its membership - have more permanent members - is what I hope for in the UNSC of the future.
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Hussein Macarambon
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 20, 2003 - 03:31 AM
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But to increase the number of permanent members from 5 to 10(?) would entail the abolition of the veto power, because Im almost positive that any move to amend the constitution of the SC would face a strong opposition from the permanent 5. And it has been over a decade since the first talk of amendment was made and we're still down to nil.
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Queer Toppy
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 20, 2003 - 11:02 AM
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I LOVE CORN!
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Ian Beacock
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 20, 2003 - 11:06 AM
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Personally, I could see the Security Council being exactly the same in twenty years. I mean, as whossane mentioned, any effort to change the SC will be met with strong opposition from the P5. The United States for one, is probably not going to want to give up its veto privilege, and neither are Russia or France for that matter (who don't really deserve a veto anymore anyway).
I think that the SC should be completely democratic, with no veto privileges whatsoever, but this is wishful thinking. I imagine the Council being precisely the same, with the possible addition of permanent seats for Germany/Japan (but no veto, as this is what the USA is supporting). Otherwise, I don't suspect we'll see a more democratic Council.
BTW, the futuristic crisis situation sounds really great.  What an awesome idea!
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Ian Beacock
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 25, 2003 - 05:33 AM
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Well, I think the reason that there's no African permanent member is because there isn't now (and probably won't be in 20 years) an African state with the global influence that is necessary in a permanent member. Besides, in the simulation, there are several African rotating members.. so Africa will be represented OK. That is a good point about having 3 Asian permanent members, though....
I like the idea of the EU, too.  Whether or not the EU actually gets so integrated as to take on that permanent seat remains to be seen, but I think it wil make things really interesting.
Regarding making the League of Islamic Nations a permanent member - would it really be a good idea to give a religious organization such power? We're running across this in the IMUN right now, with the possibility brought up of giving the Holy See permanent membership (in the GA). The thing is, once you increase the rights of one religious organization, you have to do it to all of them.
Anyway, I really like the new ideas for the Council, and also this thread. It's neat to get some discussion about this stuff. Especially the bit about the grains (mine is WHEAT btw.. lol)
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asdf
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 25, 2003 - 05:51 AM
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Maybe you should consider a UN revolution of sorts, where member states grow so disenfranchised with the set-up of the Security Council that they revolt and effectively re-write the SC and its membership, collectively. No more veto power. Rotating membership. GA oversight...could happen. Would be interesting (but admittedly not too likely).
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Antoine Wood
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 25, 2003 - 09:43 AM
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Over the next twenty years, I see a majority of todays terrorist issues no longer existing. I think the US will continue to create democratic governments in the middle east, this will lead to the western world giving money to the newly formed governments, and hence raising the standard of life in that area of the world. People who are not desperate tend to see the world in a different light, at least in my opinion.
I could see a mini rebellion against the veto powers in the UN, firstly based on it is doctrinally incorrect for an oranisation based in democracy create a system where "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others". 2ndly, if the US continues to ignore international law in favour of their own the UN may consider the risk of a Agrressor nation being able to seek refuge from international scorn because of their prominence on the international stage.
Its a complicated question, I haven't even consideredthe environment: global warming, fossil fuels, harmful solar radiation or scientific advancement. What will our ability to feed and medicate the worlds population be like.
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Hussein Macarambon
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 25, 2003 - 12:20 PM
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I LOVE RICE!
Oh, sorry, isnt this the thread where you blurt out your favorite grain?
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Mikael
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 25, 2003 - 12:34 PM
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For the security council we've decided to increase the permanent members to 7:
Permanent Veto-Wielding Members
• The United States of America
• China
• The European Union
• The Russian Federation
Permanent Members
• India
• Japan
• Brazil
Current Rotating Members
• Nigeria
• Panama
• The Republic of Korea
• Zambia
• Indonesia
• South Africa
• Jordan
• Chile
The key to the change was the integration of the European Union which led them to have only one security council seat...
will post more later.
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Hussein Macarambon
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 25, 2003 - 12:55 PM
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I like the idea of the UK and France counted as 1 EU vote.
But why are there 3 Asian P-members, while none from Africa?
Can' you just take, say, ASEAN as 1 member from the Asia Pacific? Or maybe you should count the League of Islamic Nations as a representative of the Muslim community? But honestly, at this moment, I think no organization can best represent the divided dar Al-Islam.
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Hussein Macarambon
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Re: The world in 20 years?
November 26, 2003 - 03:36 AM
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I think Egypt is a very influential African and Arab state. So instead of Japan, which really has nothing to say in the international domain of things(not like it used to, at least with financial matters), why dont we give the Muslims and Africans a voice of their own? Yes, Japan is the second biggest donor to the UN but does it really matter in terms of giving it a security responsibility? And India? What is Pakistan going to do about this?
At the end of the day, I still hope the UNSC is completely abolished.
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