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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 4, 2008 - 10:35 PM
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I just came across this information. I could not find anything further on official websites, but the blogs suggest that the issue is discussed in the Serbian media. Unfortunately, I don't understand what those newspapers say since I don't know Serbian. I'll post further info if I can find anything in Russian.
Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?Posted in November 27th, 2007 by TheThirdSite.com
http://thethirdsite.com/?p=267
Serbian daily “Kurir” reports that Russia is considering putting a missile defense system in Serbia, on the Drina river, in response to US plans to put a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Serbian paper reports that Serbia has agreed to such a proposal. The story was spotted - and summarized in English - by the blogger at Typicon Man.
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prieten47
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 5, 2008 - 04:14 AM
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Now, Arslan, this situation could be VERY INFORMATIVE for all "moral relativists," those who believe America/NATO and Russia have the same motivations.
If Russia were to install a "defensive" missle system in Serbia, would America or NATO really care? No. Neither America nor NATO has any intention of attacking Russia. GO RIGHT AHEAD! they would say.
Putin's frothing at the mouth over Poland and the Czech Republic stationing defensive missles is a CLEAR INDICATION that he still has very real plans to incinerate Europe, given sufficient provocation. Opposition to a defensive missle system can only be interpreted in that way.
If Putin would stop trying to intimidate Poland and other Eastern European former members of the Soviet empire and try being friendly, maybe they wouldn't clamor for defensive missles to be stationed in their countries.
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 5, 2008 - 07:48 PM
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Stuart,
Do you read news and analysis or do you only read malicious anti-Russian demonization campaign? The only thing your post suggets is the latter. Who do you mean by "moral relativists"? Those who refuse to apply double standards regarding NATO/USA and Russia? If that's the case, I am one of them, for I don't believe that NATO or USA or the combination of the two are morally superior to Russia.
If Russia were to install a "defensive" missle system in Serbia, would America or NATO really care? No. Neither America nor NATO has any intention of attacking Russia. GO RIGHT AHEAD! they would say.
Russia doesn't have plans to attack NATO or USA either. As for how USA would react to stationing Russian defense shield in Serbia (if that happens), it remains to be seen. There was bloody scream when Russia sold air-defense system to Iran. The right question should be how would the USA react if Russia decided to station a defense shield in Cuba and Venezuela. Any guesses on that?
Putin's frothing at the mouth over Poland and the Czech Republic stationing defensive missles is a CLEAR INDICATION that he still has very real plans to incinerate Europe, given sufficient provocation.
I am sorry, Stuart, but this is way and way beneath your intelligence. Are you serious? Why in the hell Russia would want to incinerate Europe? Firstly, although I agree that Putin has imperial ambitions, he is not that pathological behemoth to incinerate Europe for no logical reason. Secondly, there are real human beings who live in Russia and who would not obey such an order (news for you: Russians are not robots). Thirdly, how is going to get away by incinerating Europe if he has such plans? Fourthly, what would he gain by incinerating Europe? He would only lose.
I may go on and on but your suggestion is preposterous and disturbing. It is very telling about the kind of propaganda that you are exposed to through reading "free media."
Arslan
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 5, 2008 - 08:00 PM
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Opposition to a defensive missle system can only be interpreted in that way.
Nope, there is a far more plausible explanation to the Russian opposition to the stationing of missile interceptors in Eastern Europe. Do you really think that these interceptors can be a deterrent to a possible Russian attack? Ten interceptors cannot stop if Russia decides to bombard Europe. Nor these interceptors are designed to stop missile launches from Iran or North Korea. The whole talk about stopping Iranian or North Korean rockets through these interceptors is a propaganda scam. There is only one way these interceptors can be used.
Russia and USA would not go to war unless there is a very serious conflict of interests or a mistaken attack by either of them. Therefore, both countries have contingency plans for military confrontation. If there is such a crisis, and USA manages to launch the first nuclear strike, they can actually neutralize somewhere between 90 to 95 percent of the Russian nuclear arsenal. And only THEN those interceptors stationed in Eastern Europe, Alaska, Greenland, the Pacific will be operational and will be used to shoot down remaining missiles launched by Russia. Therefore, although it is called "Missile Defense System," in reality it is an offensive sytem.
If Putin would stop trying to intimidate Poland and other Eastern European former members of the Soviet empire and try being friendly, maybe they wouldn't clamor for defensive missles to be stationed in their countries.
Well, I am a member of the former Soviet Empire. But I am not afraid of a military attack by Russia. Only a paranoiac can fear that. You make it look like as if it was Poland or the Czech Republic who asked America to station those systems. It was America's initiative, and the leaders of these two countries agree, while majority of the population in both countries do NOT want those interceptors.
Arslan
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prieten47
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 6, 2008 - 11:32 PM
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Arslan, your definition of "offensive weapon" is comical and can be stretched to include any defensive weapon. Even anti-air raid balloons like those deployed in the Second World War would be "offensive weapons" because maybe they might pose some obstacles to incoming attackers that may or may not have been reduced in numbers through some other means.
Do I think Putin will incinerate Europe tomorrow? No, I don't. I said, "...given sufficient provocation..." But he is a bully and a sabre-rattler who wants to intimidate Europe. I think he knows he can do it by turning on and off the gas pipelines. That is why it is really silly of him to put up a stink about a few defensive missles in Poland and the Czech Republic.
No, Putin yearns for the good old days when Eastern Europe was still a Soviet colony. Rather than make peace with a peaceful Europe that now includes the former Soviet colonies, Putin wants to meddle. If he really wants peace, he should try being friendlier to the smaller countries on Russia's periphery.
He is meddling in Moldova by supporting the Transnistrian separatists, he is meddling in Kosovo by blocking its independence, and he is supporting separatists in Georgia. The man has a problem. I hope Medvedev is an improvement.
Arslan, you think selling anti-aircraft missles to Iran is the same as stationing anti-missle missles in Poland and the Czech Republic? Iran, the same as Poland and the Czech Republic? You really are a moral relativist.
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 7, 2008 - 12:55 AM
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If you want to say that Russia is a bully and that Putin is an authoritarian ruler, I have no significant disagreements with you. But one should not hyperventilate in assessing Russia's policies and intentions.
Your description of how Russia dealt with Ukraine, Moldova, Poland, Georgia, etc., tells everything from one side and shows half of the story. Russia is not supporting a separatist movement in Georgia out of nowhere. Russian troops stationed in Abkhazia has a UN mandate.
As for Moldova, of course, they support the Russian population. Russia hasn't cut off the European gas. They did from Ukraine because the latter not only wants to join NATO and keep making their imflammatory anti-Russian rhetoric, but also don't want to pay the market price for gas. All Russia wanted from Ukraine was to get the same price for gas they sell that they get from other Europeans. When Russia cut off the gas to Ukraine, and some European states did not receive gas for some time, it was because of Ukraine who disrupted the flow of gas through their territory. Why should Russia subsidize the Ukrainian gas procurement when the latter is openly anti-Russian? Russia has not cut off gas from any other European country.
I think, you are also exaggerating about threatening Europe. What Russia says is that if US stations missile interceptors in Poland, Russia will target them. That's conditional and a clear response to American movement. "If" is a key word here.
My point about American response to Russian sale of air-defense system to Iran was to point out how America responds to such a move. Therefore, I am not sure whether NATO or US will bless it if Russia decides to station a missile shield in Serbia. Moreover, you seem to be comparing a simple air-defense system that all countries have with interceptors that are designed to capture nuclear ballistic missiles. Iran has the right to have something all countries in the world have. But what US wants to station in Eastern Europe is a different matter.
Arslan
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prieten47
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 7, 2008 - 08:49 PM
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Arslanik wrote:
I think, you are also exaggerating about threatening Europe. What Russia says is that if US stations missile interceptors in Poland, Russia will target them. That's conditional and a clear response to American movement. "If" is a key word here.
"IF you build a fence around your house, I will burn your house down!" That doesn't sound like a threat to you, Arslan???
Arslanik wrote:
Moreover, you seem to be comparing a simple air-defense system that all countries have with interceptors that are designed to capture nuclear ballistic missiles. Iran has the right to have something all countries in the world have. But what US wants to station in Eastern Europe is a different matter.
Arslan
Hmmm, I don't see the distinction between defensive anti-missle missles and defensive anti-aircraft missles. Every country in the world has a right to defend itself against any aggression from whatever source. Whether that aggression is aircraft or nuclear missles makes no difference. The crucial distinction here is that Iran is a rogue state that routinely threatens other nations with "wiping them off the map." I haven't heard Poland or the Czech Republic threaten anyone recently.
The big joke here, Arslan, is that anti-missle missles are probably INEFFECTIVE. America's many anti-missle tests have been inconclusive at best. During the first Persian Gulf War, our Patriot missles couldn't hit anything and certainly didn't defend Israel from any incoming Iraqi missles. I am still amazed how the mere MENTION by Ronald Reagan of a "Star Wars" defense system caused the complete collapse of the Soviet Union. Okay, there were other reasons, too. Why do the LEADERS of Poland and the Czech Republic desperately want these ineffective missles stationed in their countries? They are just hoping to bind NATO and America even closer into their defense, because they still perceive Russia as a very real threat. Putin brought this on himself.
Putin is all worked up about this ineffective anti-missle system because he sees it as another chance to bully Poland and the Czech Republic, like in the "good old days." Let's hope Medvedev is a little more mature in his dealings with Europe.
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 7, 2008 - 10:46 PM
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"IF you build a fence around your house, I will burn your house down!" That doesn't sound like a threat to you, Arslan???
I don't think it is the same. Since you want to simplify it to understand it better, let me go with it. What it means, I think, is "If you build an expensive fence that I cannot afford, I will respond asymmetirically by targetting your fence and be ready to burn it if I see a serious threat from you."
But anyway, there is a lot of politics with Putin's game. Partly it is a political stunt and attempts to show that Russia is resurgent, partly he wants to show to Russian population that he is tough and that he can stand up to the US, and partly it is for gaining some support among countries which have been increasingly disappointed with the US thanks to the Bush Administration.
Hmmm, I don't see the distinction between defensive anti-missle missles and defensive anti-aircraft missles.
There is. The latter, especially the one Russia sold to Iran has a very short range, and it is something that every country in the world has. The former is a different shield.
I agree with you that these interceptors should be largely ineffective, especially given the modernization of nuclear weapons both by the United States and Russia. I think, Poland and the Czech Republic want to place them just because they want to please America, rather than a genuine feeling of threat. It is the leaders, not the population who wants those.
And basically, Stuart, there is no military threat from Russia for either Poland or the Czech Republic. They ARE already members of NATO. So, any attack by Russia will be considered an attack on NATO in general, which Russians are not stupid not to realize.
Arslan
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Nikola Pucarevic
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 8, 2008 - 08:13 AM
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Hi there everybody.
I just wanted to tell you that this debate is really not necessary as Russia will not deploy or install anything here beside gas-line.
Opening this discussion based on an article from a daily KURIR, which is known for everything BUT journalism and accurate information, shows how pointless is it.
European future of the country and the citizen willingness here to cooperate with EU and NATO is present and will develop further.
Please do not talk about this topic, as it isn't a real scenario and not related to the current events in Serbia.
Cheers,
Nikola
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 8, 2008 - 01:46 PM
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Hi Nikola,
I am glad you joined this discussion and informed us about KURIR. Well, I don't know much about your country, so excuse for that. But my point was not to take the story at face value. As you see, I put a question mark on it.
Regarding continuing this discussion, as you see, it is not only about Serbia. Actually, the talk about Serbia is marginal to this thread despite the title. We are talking about the recent tension between the USA and Russia, and exchanging opinions--which is ultimately a healthy thing.
And one question for you. I am curious to know, if you think that Serbia's future is with the EU and NATO (which I don't see any problem with myself because it is entirely up to you guys which path to take), why is Serbia against EU/NATO-supported Kosovo's bid for Independence?
Arslan
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 8, 2008 - 02:32 PM
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"There was bloody scream when Russia sold air-defense system to Iran."
That is decidedly different - Iran has an uncertified nuclear program.
If they want to put a dozen missile defense silos in Serbia - go for it, I don't care - I would just want inspectors to verify that the instillation was indeed defensive.
Arslan - all Russia whining about the missile defense system was Bull - it was a bunch of posturing - a dozen interceptors was never any threat to Russia.
frankly your convoluted arguement about intepetors in Alaska etc is not convincing - the US could have a dozen interceptors sprinkled around the glose - it would not stop Russian missils - especially submarine based.
"is a CLEAR INDICATION that he still has very real plans to incinerate Europe"
I doubt that is on the agenda - This was just posturing by the Russians - the Russians and Americans were looking for leverage on the Iranian issue.
Also - Stuart - if Putin really wanted to nuke Europe he could do it - they have thousands of missiles - a dozen interceptors are not going to put a dent in that kind of arsinal.
"IF you build a fence around your house, I will burn your house down!" That doesn't sound like a threat to you, Arslan???" -
well put. Arslan - how would you feel if the US said it would target Serbia if it hosted the defense system? Kind of a bully tactic no?
What is more - the population of Poland WAS in favor of the interceptors until Russia threatened them and threw a fit.
"our Patriot missles couldn't hit anything and certainly didn't defend Israel from any incoming Iraqi missles."
that's not true - they intercepted a bunch of Scuds.
In fact Missile defense is a huge growth industry in defense. The Israelis are developing it like crazy in conjunction with the American defense industry.
As for these missiles being effective against Iran - I think they are actually calibrated to deal with Iran's new Shaab-3
anyway - I think the real issue - is that Russia should help us contain Iran and North Korea, then all talk of interceptors will be irrelevant.
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 8, 2008 - 07:43 PM
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"There was bloody scream when Russia sold air-defense system to Iran."
That is decidedly different - Iran has an uncertified nuclear program.
It doesn't mean that they cannot have an average-quality air-defense system. I would understand it if somebody shows concern against the sale of weaponry to Iran that can be used for offensive purposes. What is the fuss about Tor-M?
If they want to put a dozen missile defense silos in Serbia - go for it, I don't care - I would just want inspectors to verify that the instillation was indeed defensive.
But you don't make US official decisions. The question is this, Luke: Would the US ignore it if Russia decided to put missile defense shield in Cuba and Venezuela? Let's say ten interceptors in each, which is not a deterrent to US arsenal at all. Would the US ignore it?
Arslan - all Russia whining about the missile defense system was Bull - it was a bunch of posturing
They are not whining about it, but responding to militarism with militarism.
"IF you build a fence around your house, I will burn your house down!" That doesn't sound like a threat to you, Arslan???" -
well put. Arslan - how would you feel if the US said it would target Serbia if it hosted the defense system? Kind of a bully tactic no?
I responded to this already. Nobody is saying "I will burn your fence." This is your convoluted statement--and not convincing.
What is more - the population of Poland WAS in favor of the interceptors until Russia threatened them and threw a fit.
That's not true. Majority were AGAINST from the very beginning.
As for these missiles being effective against Iran - I think they are actually calibrated to deal with Iran's new Shaab-3
Ok, then, why not put them in Azerbaijan, as Russia proposed? Or Turkey? Or US allies in the Gulf?
anyway - I think the real issue - is that Russia should help us contain Iran and North Korea, then all talk of interceptors will be irrelevant.
A question for you: Why did the US withdraw from the ABM Treaty in 2001?
Arslan
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 9, 2008 - 12:29 PM
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"What is the fuss about Tor-M? "
because they are building offensive weaponry and the sale of air defense gear to them dulls the threat of American air strikes against their nuclear program.
At a time when the Security Council is trying to bring Iran to heel - anything that lessens pressure on them is counter productive.
"Would the US ignore it if Russia decided to put missile defense shield in Cuba and Venezuela?"
To begin - those are hostile government - enemies. I don't think Poland is a hostile enemy of Russia.
also - who would interceptors in Venesuela be defending? Not Russia. Also wouldn't be pursuent to an international agreement like NATO.
"That's not true. Majority were AGAINST from the very beginning. "
Your simply wrong about this - it meant money for the government and economy - and there was no downside to the public.
Once Russia told them it would make them a target, and started threatening them - then the people turned against it.
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 9, 2008 - 12:56 PM
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"What is the fuss about Tor-M? "
because they are building offensive weaponry
And Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Israel, the US, France, Britain are not.
and the sale of air defense gear to them dulls the threat of American air strikes against their nuclear program.
C'mon Luke, what are you talking about? Have you skimmed through the technical details of Tor-M? It cannot even stop air raid by conventional fighter jets like F-15, let alone air raids by stealth bombers or cruise missiles. Tor-M can't do anything against American air attack.
"Would the US ignore it if Russia decided to put missile defense shield in Cuba and Venezuela?"
To begin - those are hostile government - enemies.
Are they hostile or is the US hostile to those governments? How many times Cuba or Venezuela militarily intervened and conducted covert operations and tried to assassinate American leaders? Or was it the other way around?
I don't think Poland is a hostile enemy of Russia.
Luke, I told you a million times that it is not about Poland, it is about the US who is stationing them. The US is as much a hostile enemy or Russia as Russia is of the US. That is, if the US does not consider Russia an enemy, it should not encircle it with a missile shield. If it does, Russia will respond.
As usually, you are conveniently avoiding my question because YOU KNOW that American will bloody scream if Russia decides to do EXACTLY what the US is doing. And of course, those of us who reject blatant double standard are labelled "moral relativists."
Now, another question, Luke. What does it have to do whether Cuba or Venezuela are hostile or not when it is stationed by Russia and if it is, as you guys try to convince me, is a defensive shield?
also - who would interceptors in Venesuela be defending? Not Russia.
Who would interceptors in Poland be defending? Not the USA.
Arslan
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: Russia To Deploy Missile Defense in Serbia?
February 9, 2008 - 12:57 PM
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Also wouldn't be pursuent to an international agreement like NATO.
NATO? International agreement that does not include Russia? Give me a break with this suggestion. Actually, the issue is being discussed bilaterally by US and Poland, not through NATO. Russia may also discuss it with SCO (which doesn't include US) and go ahead if it wants to behave like the US.
"That's not true. Majority were AGAINST from the very beginning. "
Your simply wrong about this
I am simply RIGHT about this. I even posted a poll result supporting my argument here at tig before Russia made any suggestion that they would target any stationed interceptor.
Arslan
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