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Hayk
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North Korea and nuclear power
October 3, 2006 - 12:56 PM
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"SEOUL, South Korea North Korea triggered global alarm on Tuesday by saying it will conduct a nuclear test, a key step in the manufacture of atomic bombs that it views as a deterrent against any U.S. attack. But the North also said it was committed to nuclear disarmament, suggesting a willingness to negotiate.
The contradictory statement fits a North Korean pattern of ratcheting up tension on the Korean Peninsula, a Cold War-era flashpoint, in an attempt to win concessions such as economic aid. The strategy has had mixed results in recent years as the totalitarian regime sinks deeper into isolation and poverty, with China serving as its lifeline for food and fuel.
North Korea "will in the future conduct a nuclear test in a condition where safety is firmly guaranteed," the North's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
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The North Korean statement did not say when a nuclear test might occur, but the prospect that Pyongyang could soon make such a technological leap drew rebukes and consternation from Japan, South Korea and the United States. The allies, along with China and Russia, had participated in stalled six-party talks aimed at getting the North to give up its nuclear ambitions.
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http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/03/asia/AS_GEN_NKorea_Nuclear.php
From words to action, i love this attitude. its just the outcome or a mere anticipation of the upcoming test might have certain unexpected developments...
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NaBeeel
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 3, 2006 - 03:29 PM
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Double blow to nuclear detente
A US military response to North Korea's move remains unlikely
On the same day, the crises over the nuclear policies of North Korea and Iran have taken a turn for the worse.
North Korea's announcement that it intends to carry out a nuclear weapons test is another grave twist in a crisis that appears to be without end or solution.
And a senior British official has said it is now clear that Iran will not suspend uranium enrichment and that therefore moves to impose sanctions will start in the UN Security Council.
The only hope that can be seen in the North Korean statement is what is not in it. It does not announce that a test has already taken place.
There is therefore some possibility that, by warning of it well in advance, North Korea is simply trying to engage the United States in direct dialogue.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 3, 2006 - 09:29 PM
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The Korean Pinnisula could easily become another flash point.
You are talking about the US getting involved in another war - that we are stretched too thin - sure.
but what about the KOREANS THEMSELVES - the South Koreans are NOT happy about the idea of Kim Jung Il with a Nuclear weapon.
When the Foreign Minister said that South Korea annot let them get a bomb - we will see if the rhetoric becomes action.
This can also create problem for the Chinese whose economic grouwth will be stunted if there is a major war in its neighborhood - crippling major trading partners like South Korea and Japan.
Also - it is interesting to note that a South Korean is a favorite to be the next UN cheif.
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That guy
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Iran is the real problem
October 4, 2006 - 12:49 AM
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Lets consider things logically:
I think there is minimal risk of North Korea using a nuclear missile against the U.S. If nothing else, the U.S. still has enough nuclear firepower to turn North Korea into a glass plate if they try anything. Luke you are probably correct in assuming that the U.S. would be reluctant to attack first because U.S. troops are stretched too thin and also the North Koreans might fire missiles at us.
Therefore, we're probably safe from that direction.
However, Iran is worrying. Suicide bombers are practically worshipped there, and they have a whole section of their military trained in suicide attacks. Once Iran has nuclear suitcase bombs, its all over: a nuclear suicide attack on an American city would be difficult to trace (evidence has been vaporized...) so mutually assured destruction would not apply.
I almost miss the Cold War: two clearly divided sides and the clean simplicity of MAD to keep armageddon at bay...
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vas
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 4, 2006 - 02:33 AM
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wont it affect peace talk with south korea.just when it seemed that Korea is on road to peace and unification ,another flashpoint ahs occured.nuclear energy for civilian purposes like electricity generation is good but harnessing it to promote warfare is morally incorrect.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 4, 2006 - 11:51 AM
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wvanbokk - I wouldn't take the North Korean threat too lightly - they do not HAVE missils yet that can reach us - their missil tests PROVED that, but it owuld only be a matter of time unless they are diverted from course.
it is not that they would attack us directly - it is the threat to South Korea and particularly Japan that is concerning.
Japan because we are bound by the treaties which ended WW2 to protect the Japanese - so if North Korea attacked Japan we would HAVE to get involved.
Iran is of course a major concern. However a suit case nuke is totally beyond their ability to produce - it is beyound OUR ability to create something that compact in part because Nuclear missil use the huge conventional explotion to start the Nuclear process - so where do you get that huge conventional explosion in a suite case.
But anyway -
I read an article in the New York Times by Ted Kopple that addresses the concern of an "untracible" suicide attack from Iran.
its called the "Godfather" approach and its summed up in the speech Brando gave to the mophia Dons in the movie
“I forgo my vengeance for my dead son, for the common good. But I have selfish reasons.” The welfare of his youngest son, Michael, is on his mind.
“I am a superstitious man,” he continues. “And so if some unlucky accident should befall my youngest son, if some police officer should accidentally shoot him, or if he should hang himself in his cell, or if my son is struck by a bolt of lightening, then I will blame some of the people here. That I could never forgive.”
says Kopple -
- this should also be made clear to Tehran: If a dirty bomb explodes in Milwaukee, or some other nuclear device detonates in Baltimore or Wichita, if Israel or Egypt or Saudi Arabia should fall victim to a nuclear “accident,” Iran should understand that the United States government will not search around for the perpetrator. The return address will be predetermined, and it will be somewhere in Iran.
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Anu maheshwari
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 4, 2006 - 12:02 PM
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wvanbokk wrote:
Lets consider things logically:
I think there is minimal risk of North Korea using a nuclear missile against the U.S. If nothing else, the U.S. still has enough nuclear firepower to turn North Korea into a glass plate if they try anything.
Therefore, we're probably safe from that direction.
...
you may be right here... but i am still not comfortable with the idea os North Korea getting nukes. the living conditions in North Korea are so bad that its preposterous that they are more concerned about testing nuclear weapons ...a country like Iran can still have that right as they are a transtitional economy which is sufficiently stable.
wvanbokk wrote:
However, Iran is worrying. Suicide bombers are practically worshipped there, and they have a whole section of their military trained in suicide attacks. Once Iran has nuclear suitcase bombs, its all over: a nuclear suicide attack on an American city would be difficult to trace (evidence has been vaporized...) so mutually assured destruction would not apply.
...
i dont think suicide bombers are worshipped in Iran and for that matter it is grossly absurd to attribute such things to a country as a whole...
Iranians love peace just as they do in any other country...they do have a bad opinion about US govt....because of historical reasons....(the US govt supported Saddam )
even if they have nuclear weapons they are no dangerous than any other country in the world...you can check the past records to confirm that.... how many times has Iran ever attacked a country ????? or launched an offensive against another country ????
and if that is the criteria to bar a nation from getting nuclear technology then Pakistan , an ally of US Govt, should be the most likely candidate. the recent investigations done by Indian intelligence agencies in the wake of the 11/7 bomb blasts clearly prove that Pakistan actively supports terrorism , yet US doesnt stop itself from selling weapons to Pakistan...
also the scandal invloving A Q Khan didnt deter US govt from supporting Pakistan
wvanbokk wrote:<
I almost miss the Cold War: two clearly divided sides and the clean simplicity of MAD to keep armageddon at bay...
we definitely have better options and even North Korea is ready for disarmament ...
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Merlyn
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 4, 2006 - 02:44 PM
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North Korea is no better nor worse than Iran and India.
All depends on a prospective and how this prospective is "sold" all around the world.
I mentionned this and and i will mention it again here: it is highly improbable any of these countries will use nuclear weapons on any of their respective foes even in cases of desperate need, because they are clearly conscient of a forthcoming response that might entail.
Anuriandima84, you are openly suggesting everywhere Pakistan but I haven't seen a wind of India anywhere. And I don't believe India is any better than Pakistan when it comes to having a nuclear race. We also know that India recently after some "trading" with US is well on its way to enhance its nuclear capacity.
So why North should not do it? North has a past track-record of telling it will give up all its nuclear capacity in exchange for a civilian nuclear poweplant, in 2005, to which the Bush governement expressed its extreme indignation.
As Iran, with its tests of Taepodong 2 this year, so North is trying to bolster its defence, which has a rather symbolic meaning, while I hardly think North intends to use its alleged nuclear weapons.
I also think that the US instead of being provoked or incited by this move from the North should take this issue more calmly (there is no offence without one's own consent). Afterall, the US administration was aware of the existence of nuclear weapons in the North and the test, which North is anticipating, is not more than a push towards a diplomatic solution to the stalemate over its program and a demand to lift some of sanctions that the US has imposed and the US knows it. I therefore think that all this indignation and hype of being provoked is again to use, if ever, to justify some actions against the North.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 4, 2006 - 07:41 PM
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sure elemental - lets sit by and watch Kim Jung Il -
- who is known to have experimented with Chemical weapons on his own people at concentration camps
- develop full nuclear weapons capacity - why should the US take offense -
- just because 3 months ago they were testing an intercontinental missil, and now they are testing nuclear weapons...
Your right I can't see the problem - Kim Jung Il is such a reasonable man.
I am sure the good people in Tokeyo don't mind his new found love of physics.
To be able to create a nuclear weapon - and place it on a missil that can reach Los Angeles or Paris or anything in between.
that is sure a "symbolic" gesture - rich in symbolism...
To be able to sell this technology to other crack pot dictators is pretty symbolic - sure why not - everyone should have a nuclear bomb - its "unfair" otherwise.
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Arslan Jumaniyazov
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 5, 2006 - 01:02 AM
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elemental,
I see the logic of what you are saying. I mean, yeah, one needs to be totally nuts--whether North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, India, or Israel--to attack another country with nuclear weapons considering a possible retaliation.
However, does the North Korean dictator see this logic? I am afraid, I am sceptical about it and tend to agree with Luke that the world is far and way better off with a NON-nuclear North Korea.
Cheers,
Arslan
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Anu maheshwari
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 5, 2006 - 03:01 PM
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elemental wrote:
North Korea is no better nor worse than Iran and India.
.
based on historical and logical evidence North Korea is a worst case scenario.
elemental wrote:
<br /
All depends on a prospective and how this prospective is "sold" all around the world.
.
yes you are right ...but thats not the only 'truth'!
elemental wrote:
<br /
I mentionned this and and i will mention it again here: it is highly improbable any of these countries will use nuclear weapons on any of their respective foes even in cases of desperate need, because they are clearly conscient of a forthcoming response that might entail.
.
if there was no precedent i would have believed that....But US has used it not once but twice !
whatever the circumstances , such weapons have been used before and hence there is no guarantee that they will not be used again .
elemental wrote:
<br /
Anuriandima84, you are openly suggesting everywhere Pakistan but I haven't seen a wind of India anywhere. And I don't believe India is any better than Pakistan when it comes to having a nuclear race. We also know that India recently after some "trading" with US is well on its way to enhance its nuclear capacity.
.
as i mentioned before my friend ,
i am against nuclear weapons per se !
i am against any country gettin nukes or any other kind os WMDs... but thats not reality !
countries do have it and they are not going to get rid of it till others have it !
and India's trading off with US govt was on civilian nuclear cooperation NOT on acquiring nuclear weapons . US would help India to develop its nuclear capacity so that India can deal with its massive power shortage and other things.
India cannot rely on petro products for long and our water resources are also depleting fast ....some of the states still rely of thermal power for electricity !!!
so its a must for India to develop its nuclear power plants ...
contd
This post was edited on: 2006-10-05 at 03:02 PM by: anuriandima84
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Anu maheshwari
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 5, 2006 - 03:01 PM
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elemental wrote:
<br /
As Iran, with its tests of Taepodong 2 this year, so North is trying to bolster its defence, which has a rather symbolic meaning, while I hardly think North intends to use its alleged nuclear weapons.
.
bolster the defence against whom????
If you analyse the situation carefully , more than anybody else . North Korea is a threat to itself ...North Koreans have less to fear from South Korea than their own govt and leader.
they can easily patch up things with South ...and the positive sign was coming together as one nation in the olympics etc...there too ordinary people dont have anything against each other...its just their govt which is rigid !
cheers
Anu
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Merlyn
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 6, 2006 - 03:00 PM
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Dear Luke,
North is considered evil by whom? By the western countries, which is basically synonymous to the US and Company, if i may call Britain, France, Germany and the rest of Western European countries so. Japan, naturally, has a long and quite painful history with Koreans, and even more, has been under the US protection every since the WW2.
South, considered truthfuly a more developped thanks to western countries with many investments which brought it out of miserable state which it had just 20 years ago, is also pro-Western aka pro-American.
As you see it is very simple. West hates the North, and it has reasons to: its general anrchic foreign policy, total disregard for any of the UN resolutions, and its open defiance to Americans. Notwithstanding the despotism which reigns.
BUT, Luke, what are other countries thinking about the North. For example, China? China is the country that should be as "afraid", if there is something to be afraid of, from the North as any other country such as Japan: it is in the range of the sam Taepodong2. Is China afraid? I don't think so. Moreover, China is the country that urges all others to remain calm. Why? Because it sees no immediate, nor for that matter, any longterm thread. Even more, North made it clear, via highly-placed but anonymous sources from the top North policy-makers that North is trying to end the stallmate caused mainly by the US over its nuclear program.
Kim Jung 2 is doing:
- Chemical tests, which means nothing, as the same US does it all the time, and today for example in North Carolina, in Apex, 17000 people were asked to evacuate becuase of of some explosion in the chemical factory...
- nuclear capacity, but so do Israel, Pakistan and India, none of which are NPT signatories...
- long-missile tests for the same reason as it announced now, knowing well in advance how the naive politicians in West will react (allcountries do such tests, including Americans, but we don't hear everyone pitching about these tests on media; it is normal that the US does it, of course).
Lastly, the excuse forIran, namely of fomenting international terrorism, is hardly the case here.
All hype is nothing else but a PRcampaign. There is a need to change the power in the North, let Northpeople do it or help them diplomatically and by other means, but not by threats...
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Merlyn
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 6, 2006 - 03:21 PM
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"based on historical and logical evidence North Korea is a worst case scenario. " by anuriandima84
Dear anuriandima84,
I would very much appreciate you bringing forth those evidences. Moreover, I don't think there is such a thing as logical evidence in the international politics, as you mention it, but nonetheless, I would very much like to see your evidences.
Next, you were saying the North is a threat to itself, right? If it is, as you claim, then I don't see why all other countries of the West should be so worried about the North. It is up to their government to be worried about it. The people, despite the minor oposition parties, could still make a revolution or overthrow the king, which has many precedents throughout the human kind history. But if the us, westerners, are so worried about the North people, so we might also be worried abou other people in other ocuntries under oppresion or dictatorship, say Cuba or even Ruassia. Are we worried about Russian people. A resounding NO. So let us not pretend to be worried about the North people. Tehy will, if they want to or have to, take care of themselves.
About India versus North nuclear capacity. North is a communism and we know that people are not living in the best conditions. Shortages are a common place throughout much of the world apart the Western hemishpere. But nuclear proliferation, even for usage of civil, which is only one step behind transforming it at any moment into a military, usages can not be justified. Otherwise all the sub-Saharn African coutries would rally for having a nuclear capacity. You see? It is again an excuse. India is, in reality, concerned with Pakistan.
And your last point about defense. Defense is an essential part of each coutries foreign policy. Especially if you have opponents such as the US you better take care of having some decent defense, not necesseraly to use but at least to show you are not all that defenseless.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: North Korea and nuclear power
October 6, 2006 - 07:02 PM
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"North is considered evil by whom?"
rational people all over the world - Kim Jung Il is anyway - Anu is in India, Arslan is in Central Asia.
Kim Jung Il is a lunatic, he puts entire families in conentraition camps if they whisper critisism of his government.
his people are starving - the average HIGHT and BODYWIEGHTof a North Korean has DECREASED over the last decade - they are now much smaller then their Southern brothers.
This is because the government thinks it is more important to invest in a nuclear weapons and ballistic missil program than, you know... FEED HIS PEOPLE.
and yeah, that's pretty evil.
there are reports that they experimented on Concentraition Camp prisoners with Chemical weapons.
- he is evil, it is not simply an "American" idea or a "Western" Idea.
"Notwithstanding the despotism which reigns."
- exactly
"China? China is the country that should be as "afraid", if there is something to be afraid of, from the North as any other country such as Japan: it is in the range of the sam Taepodong2. Is China afraid? I don't think so"
uhh, yeah they are, that is why they are not helping them at the UN anymore.
because if North Korea has bomb then JAPAN and SOUTH KOREA will develop nuclear programs.
it is not in China's interest at all to have a nuclear Japan.
"Moreover, China is the country that urges all others to remain calm."
they have not - have you been listening to their representative at the UN??
They don't want a war -
and they CERTAINLY do not want millions of refugees flooding into China, which this war would easily create.
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