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Lewis Best
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Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 12, 2006 - 09:26 AM
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What do you guys think about the Israeli attacks on lebanon and the troop build up on the Israel / Lebanon border? What consequences will it have for the Middle East as a whole in the immediate future? Will this lead to a masive increase in tensions?
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 12, 2006 - 01:45 PM
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I think the Hezbullah kidnapping is designed to draw Israel into conflict with Lebannon.
Syria's fingerprints are all over this.
I think the Israelis need to be smart and recognise that Syria is trying to draw them into a fight and figure out a way to avoid doing anything that would benefit Syria.
I also think the Israelis are being tested with this new method of gurrilla warfare.
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Hayk
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 12, 2006 - 03:35 PM
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I agree with Luke!
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/12/news/web.0712gaza2.php
"The Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah on Wednesday morning seized two Israeli soldiers in a brazen raid along Israel's border with Lebanon. Israel immediately responded by sending an armored force into southern Lebanon for the first time in six years.
...
...
"
I think Hezbollah did this to escalate the already-escalated crisis in the region and try to overstretch the Israeli forces deployed in the region. That explaions also why Israel had to draw on 3000 more reserve forces and deploy them along the Lebanese corner...
By doing what it did, Hezbollah (according to its supporters) at one go shows its solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza and its perpetual enimity towards Israelians. The duifference, howeverm, between Hezbollah and Hamas is that Hezbollah is more organized and stronger in that it has nto only a cabinet minister in Lebanese government but also has a strong support from Syrian and Iran.
The background of Hezbollah doing the kidnapping was its past (in 2000) experience with Israel when it exchanged 4 dead bodies of Israeli soldiers with 450 prisoners from Israel.
Another reason why it would do so , in my opinion, was to incite Israel to invade smoe parts of Lebanon, exactly what Israel did, and therefore to draw an international condemnation caused by infringing onto the territorial integrity of the country, which was what happened when Kofi Anna condemned Israel for invading the South of Lebanon.
To my view Israel's reaction is kind of logical btu rather predictable and therefore crticical for the stability of the region...
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 12, 2006 - 05:45 PM
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Israel has to be smarter than this -
for one thing this incursion into Southern Lebannon will take all the teeth out of resolution 1559 which was being used to get Syria out of Lebannon -
also Israel should be trying to divide Hezbullah and Syria apart from the general Lebanese population and marginalize them and their ideology -
by holding the Lebanese government responsible they are lumping them all together and pushing Lebannon back into Syria's corner.
I think rather than these heavy handed attacks the Israelis should figure out how to get their hands on some key players - like Mashaal and the leaders of Hezbullah.
but a last word to the wise - those who pick a fight with Israel - GET ONE.
the Israeli army is not streched - this is still not a very big conflict for them - Hezbullah and Hamas are not militarily significant next to say Syria, Egypt and Jordan in 67' and 73'
- they are calling up reserves because i think they have some big plans to "change the rules of the game" and their soldiers are going to be getting alot of excersize in the coming future.
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Saladin
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Exchange of detainees...
July 12, 2006 - 06:31 PM
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think the Hezbullah kidnapping is designed to draw Israel into conflict with Lebannon.
This is one way to look at it, however, what I think is that Hezbollah's kidnapping of those Israeli soldiers is nothing but to make the world remember that there are hundreds of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails, including the famous detainee Samir Kuntar who has recently completed his 28th year in Israeli prisons.
Hayk also provides some useful facts that back up my point of view:
The background of Hezbollah doing the kidnapping was its past (in 2000) experience with Israel when it exchanged 4 dead bodies of Israeli soldiers with 450 prisoners from Israel.
As I said, they want to exchange prisoners, and to draw international attention to the problem of Lebanese detainees in Israeli jails.
Syria's fingerprints are all over this.
I thought you were one of the fiercest fighters against conspiracy theories.
This post was edited on: 2006-07-12 at 06:32 PM by: aymanelhakea
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Saladin
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 12, 2006 - 06:46 PM
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I think rather than these heavy handed attacks the Israelis should figure out how to get their hands on some key players - like Mashaal and the leaders of Hezbullah
Exactly like the assassinations of Ahmed Yassin, Abdul-Aziz Ar-Rantissi, and the attempt to assassinate Khalid Mesh'al in Jordan.
Israel has adopted recently the policy of find and assassinate, instead of find, and bring to trial.
It is really hard for a political amateur like me to understand why hadn't the Israeli government assassinated Eichmann, following the way they dealt with Yassin, Ar-Rantissi, and Mesh'al, knowing that Eichmann is considered by Israel to be a contributor to the Holocaust - or the extermination of Europe's Jewish population- (In other words, people like Eichmann were by far more dangerous to the Jewish nation).
Why hadn't Israel captured Yassin and Ar-Rantissi and sent them to trial ? Why were they killed without trial, and why weren't they treated like Eichmann ?
I'm still not finding any reasonable answer...
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 12, 2006 - 11:59 PM
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Ayman - you don't think the timing of all this is a bit suspect.
If ALL Hezbullah was thinking, was about freeing prisoners why now especially?
also - do you really think in this situation the Israelis can realease prisoners -
that would basically mean that the tactic was a success and it should be done again and again.
so we'll see - it also speaks to the need of IDF to design better force protection.
"I thought you were one of the fiercest fighters against conspiracy theories." - Ayman
so you don't think Syria is a major backer of Hezbullah?
it is not so much a conspiracy theory as an open secret -
here it is on the front page of Aljazeera -
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/27EDF072-1581-48CE-812D-A34D7C89A333.htm
"Hezbollah was founded in the early 1980s by Lebanese Shia who wanted to fight the Israeli army, which since 1982 had occupied a large area of southern Lebanon.
The movement grew quickly after receiving Syrian and Iranian logistical, financial and military support."
"Hezbollah remains dependent on Syria and Iran for funds and arms."
follow the money - Syria is backing Hezbullah, and Hezbullah are their freinds in Lebannon.
Syria has spent the last year assasinating Lebanese political and media figures who promote Lebanese independance -
- and reeling from the Cedar Revolution which has put all kinds of political pressure on Syria both locally and internationally.
this conflict with Israel serves their interests.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 12:02 AM
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Ayman - a last point about Syria - lets remember please that Mashaal was behind the FIRST kidnapping and he operates out of Damascus.
Syria is in the middle of all of this.
about Eichmann - he was killed after a trial sure -
but they were able to capture him - that is why they could bring him to trial -
But he didn't have all the military protection that the heads of Hamas and Hezbullah have - he was not located in a hostile country, and he was not surrounded by a militant organization.
Mashaal in Demascus with the Syrian army and Hamas gunman surrounding him is a much more difficult person to "arrest"
that is the logical difference - an incursion into Syrian capital and then this capture would be very bloody and difficult and the liklihood of escape is very high.
if they can find him from the air and just hit him - it is the most practical way.
so that is the logical reason - practicality.
This post was edited on: 2006-07-13 at 12:18 AM by: luke
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DNA
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 02:43 AM
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i wish to answer my question....................................................................................why you and the world remember two soildior of israel but there in israel jails hundreds of lebanese & palestinians &arab to hold in there without strong argument ????? you can answer this question without cunning .... for all
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Saladin
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 08:23 AM
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If ALL Hezbullah was thinking, was about freeing prisoners why now especially?
People resisting for their legitimate rights should not be blamed for the timing they chose to get their rights, especially if they are targeting military, and not civilian targets.
There are Lebanese prisoners, who were detained by armed force, and they should be liberated, at any time, that's how Hezbollah thinks.
also - do you really think in this situation the Israelis can realease prisoners -
Not only did Israel exchange prisners with Hizbollah before, but also Israel exchanged 450 Lebanese prisoners for 4 Israeli dead bodies before.
So, yes,
that would basically mean that the tactic was a success and it should be done again and again
________________________________
so you don't think Syria is a major backer of Hezbullah?
it is not so much a conspiracy theory as an open secret -
here it is on the front page of Aljazeera -
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/27EDF072-1581-48CE-812D-A34D7C89A333.htm
"Hezbollah was founded in the early 1980s by Lebanese Shia who wanted to fight the Israeli army, which since 1982 had occupied a large area of southern Lebanon.
The movement grew quickly after receiving Syrian and Iranian logistical, financial and military support."
"Hezbollah remains dependent on Syria and Iran for funds and arms."
No question about the Syrian and Iranian support to Hezbollah. However, the central point is that Syria is not ready for any sort of battle with the IDF. It is also assumed that the Syrian backing to Hezbollah has significantly dried up since the Syrian pullout from Lebanon.
It has also been foreseen that with the Syrians retreating from Lebanon, Israel would have more freedom to operate its army in Lebanon.
I honestly can see that Syria is not at all in a situation that makes it ready for such a fight -directly or indirectly- with Israel.
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Saladin
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 08:42 AM
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about Eichmann - he was killed after a trial sure -
but they were able to capture him - that is why they could bring him to trial -
But he didn't have all the military protection that the heads of Hamas and Hezbullah have - he was not located in a hostile country, and he was not surrounded by a militant organization.
I agree, but what about Saddam Hussein, Manuel Noriega, Abdullah Ocalan, Patrice Lomomba , Carlos, (and even William Wallace, Renault de Chatillon, Louis IX, Napoléon Bonaparte, and Ahmed Urabi ).....they were all in hostile lands, surrounded by a great deal of protection, and they were all captured and most of them were sent to trial, nothing is impossible.
But of course, it's much more easier and faster to launch some missiles on an old man sitting on a wheeled chair (like Ahmed Yassin), just like the way insects are killed, rather than capturing him and sending him to trial.
The main question is really more about the readiness of Israel to do it legally, rather than to do it by arm -an expression in Arabic-, knowing that Israel claims to be a democratic state, that should provide a bright example for its neighbors, in terms of respecting human rights.
In addition, assassinations of opponents are not against the Israeli constitution, since Israel has no written constitution until today.
This post was edited on: 2006-07-13 at 08:49 AM by: aymanelhakea
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 12:10 PM
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"People resisting for their legitimate rights should not be blamed for the timing they chose to get their rights, especially if they are targeting military, and not civilian targets."
Uh huh - the point is that Syria is behind this whole thing - and the whole matter was unprovoked.
if the Lebanese was prisoner release then let them sign a peace treaty, prisoner release should be part of comprehensive peace negotiations - not hostige negotiations.
more to the point you are just dancing around the FACT that this was done 2 weeks after Hamas did it and BOTH GROUPS are directly supported and influenced by Syria.
"Not only did Israel exchange prisners with Hizbollah before, but also Israel exchanged 450 Lebanese prisoners for 4 Israeli dead bodies before.
So, yes,"
which is exactly why they CANNOT do so now, because it encourages the tactic.
just as you say - well LAST TIME the tactic worked so we do it again.
you show why the Israelis cannot release prisoners - because it encourages their enemies to kidnap MORE soldiers.
"However, the central point is that Syria is not ready for any sort of battle with the IDF. "
And now they don't have to - they have Hezbullah doing it for them, and Lebannon suffering the consequences.
its called a PROXY WAR.
"It has also been foreseen that with the Syrians retreating from Lebanon, Israel would have more freedom to operate its army in Lebanon."
And this is EXACTLY what the Syrians want people in Lebannon to think.
that is why it is in their interests to provoke this conflict.
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Hayk
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 12:43 PM
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5177178.stm
"nternational calls for restraint are growing, with Russia, France and the EU saying Israel's response to the capture of two soldiers was disproportionate.
Meanwhile Israeli jets bombed the main Lebanese army air base in Bekaa Valley.
Israel is imposing an air and sea blockade on Lebanon following the two soldiers' capture by Hezbollah.
........
"
Interesting... Exactly the same tactics as in Gaza and eXACTLY the same result... i.e. NO result..
To me, Israel's reaction is not only disproportionate but is bordering with almost "paranoical".. Israel should understand that in order to liberate two soldiers hidden somewhere deep it is not the invasion of southern lebanon and destroying infrastructure, giving again the same vague and out-of-context excuses, as it did in gaza after destroying the powerplant, that will bring these two soldiers back but negottiations..
While i condemn thouroughly what Hezbolah did, icondemn also the Israeli reaction to it...
Bombing an airport and giving an excuse "it is used to transfer weapons to hezbolah" or any similar excuse is really not very clever...
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Rehana
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Re: Israeli / Lebanon conflict and troop build up
July 13, 2006 - 06:25 PM
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once you sift through all the surface talk, ofcourse SYRIA is behind all of this...how convenient that after syria pulls out of lebanon, syria-backed Hezbollah decides to ignite a conflict...and make it seemingly appear that w/o syria's support...israel would invade lebanon..therfore, syria is a necessity in lebanon and so is hezbollah to protect the lebanese from the enemy ISRAEL...its all political jargon...read b/w the lines!
and if hezbollah really wanted their prisoners back....there is something called negotations! this is not what hezbollah wants..and if israel would give in again like in the past and exchange 450 soldiers for 4 israeil dead bodies..that would be appeasing Hezbollah and proving that this tactic works...israel has the right to defend its sovereign nation
what is essential is to make the distinction b/w the general lebanese population and Hezbollah in order to truly understand who is at the root of this problem and why.
This post was edited on: 2006-07-13 at 06:36 PM by: rehana
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Saladin
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Unhidden BIAS
July 14, 2006 - 11:15 AM
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if the Lebanese was prisoner release then let them sign a peace treaty, prisoner release should be part of comprehensive peace negotiations - not hostige negotiations.
I can't see the necessity of signing peace treaties to exchange prisnoers/hostages/detainees or whatever you might call them. Such exchanges have been usually conducted with the supervision of neutral parties such as the Red Cross of the United Nations, like the previous exchanges between Egypt and Israel, and between Hezbollah and Israel.
Don't forget also that to "let them sign a peace treaty", means that Israel will sign a peace treaty with an organization it claims to be a "terrorist organization". In conclusion, Israel will never sign any kind of treaties with Hezbollah.
"Not only did Israel exchange prisners with Hizbollah before, but also Israel exchanged 450 Lebanese prisoners for 4 Israeli dead bodies before.
So, yes,"
which is exactly why they CANNOT do so now, because it encourages the tactic.
just as you say - well LAST TIME the tactic worked so we do it again.
you show why the Israelis cannot release prisoners - because it encourages their enemies to kidnap MORE soldiers.
Unfortunately this was the impression Israel made of itself to Hezbollah, and that's why basically Hezbollah did kindnap the two soldiers. This prisoners exchange matter has happened many times between Israel and Hezbollah, take this example from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah
Hezbollah abducted three IDF soldiers during an October 2000 attack in Shebaa Farms, and sought to obtain the release of 14 Lebanese prisoners, some of whom had been held since 1978. On January 25, 2004, Hezbollah successfully negotiated through German mediators Israel agreed on an exchange of prisoners. The prisoner swap was carried out on January 29: 30 Lebanese and Arab prisoners, the remains of 60 Lebanese militants and civilians, 420 Palestinian prisoners, and maps showing Israeli mines in South Lebanon were exchanged for an Israeli businessman and army reserve colonel kidnapped in 2001 and the remains of the three IDF soldiers mentioned above, who were killed either during the Hezbollah operation, or in its immediate aftermath.
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