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Saladin
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Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 10, 2005 - 04:53 AM
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After global warming threats have reached the US southern coast, manifested in Katrina, would you think the Bush administration would revise its policy regarding the Kyoto treaty ?
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 10, 2005 - 09:24 AM
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AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
aymanelhakea, my friend - there are only two things that will make the US sign that treaty - their names are China and India.
Both of those countries are going to Skyrocket the demand for Oil and put upward pressure on the price - the US will not put itself at a competative disadvantage at this point with China especially.
also if the Chinese don't sign the treaty - really what is the point? There are 4 times as many people in China as opposed to the US.
As for Katrina - the last Hurricane that big was 40 years ago - and 50 years before that there was another Cat 5.
Was Global Warming the issue in 1910?
If anything Karina hurt the cances of that action happening any time soon.
The US lost 1 dozen refineries, tthe biggest pipeline was down for a week.
Gas in the US has gone up already litterally %35 in the last YEAR - with a 15 cent a gallon spike just since Katrina.
they will not do anything to destabilize the price of Oil further, they are trying to stabilize it litterally right now.
Basically the Kuwaities made that possible by gifting 500 million$ in Oil.
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Cherrie
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 11, 2005 - 06:19 AM
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Originally posted by luke
AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
also if the Chinese don't sign the treaty - really what is the point? There are 4 times as many people in China as opposed to the US.
Just because China has more people doesn't mean that it pollutes more. I don't know a hell of a lot about this, but you really shouldn't assume China pollutes more due to its population numbers.
Please see this, http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/sci_tech/2001/climate_change/default.stm
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Cherrie
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Questioning Global Warming
September 11, 2005 - 06:29 AM
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1017204.stm
Just interesting to read about.
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Saladin
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 11, 2005 - 07:29 AM
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Luke,
that what I expected to be the justification for not signing the treaty; and believe me, it's disastrous for me, If I were to be in the place of George W. Bush to change that policy.
Unfortunately the dry seasons in Mali and Niger this year were unusual, and El-Nino, and La-Nina I don't think they date back from long time ago...there are always threats to the environment; and it's everyone's fault basically.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 12, 2005 - 02:14 AM
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No Cherrie - the fact that they have 4 times as many people means they have the potential to pollute FAR more and in the next 10 years they are projected to far surpass America in terms of emmissions as more and more of their people gets cars.
why do you think China is trying to buy up every energy company they can get their hands on?
their rate of aquisition of fossil fuels is growing exponentially.
here are the numbers
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html
OIL
China was the world's second largest consumer of petroleum products in 2004, having surpassed Japan for the first time in 2003, with total demand of 6.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d). China's oil demand is projected by EIA to reach 14.2 million bbl/d by 2025, with net imports of 10.9 million bbl/d. As the source of around 40% of world oil demand growth over the past four years, with year-on-year growth of 1.0 million bbl/d in 2004, Chinese oil demand is a key factor in world oil markets.
They are already the second biggest consumer and their demand is expected to MORE THAN DOUBLE over the next 20 years.
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nGr8
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 16, 2005 - 05:26 AM
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Originally posted by luke
No Cherrie - the fact that they have 4 times as many people means they have the potential to pollute FAR more and in the next 10 years they are projected to far surpass America in terms of emmissions as more and more of their people gets cars.
why do you think China is trying to buy up every energy company they can get their hands on?
their rate of aquisition of fossil fuels is growing exponentially.
here are the numbers
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html
OIL
China was the world's second largest consumer of petroleum products in 2004, having surpassed Japan for the first time in 2003, with total demand of 6.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d). China's oil demand is projected by EIA to reach 14.2 million bbl/d by 2025, with net imports of 10.9 million bbl/d. As the source of around 40% of world oil demand growth over the past four years, with year-on-year growth of 1.0 million bbl/d in 2004, Chinese oil demand is a key factor in world oil markets.
They are already the second biggest consumer and their demand is expected to MORE THAN DOUBLE over the next 20 years.
luke, you conveniently left out the USA's statistics to compare with china.
Even with your fancy predictions of Chinese growth by 2025, their demand at that time will still be less than the USA's is TODAY!! (even if US did not grow at all).
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html
(and as you said, the country has 4 times as many people so think about how much oil you are using and ask yourself if it is sustainable.)
luke, exactly what "competitive disadvantage" does the US suffer from that the 141 countries that have ratified the agreement do not?
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 16, 2005 - 06:46 AM
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Sorry to upset you Nate - If you would like me to go into more detail I would be happy to.
Your right - China is not projected to pass the US in Oil consumption until 2030.
But by 2025 they will certainly be beyond where the US is now -
"With real gross domestic product growing at a rate of 8-10% a year, China's need for energy is projected to increase by 150 percent by 2020. to sustain its growth China requires increasing amounts of oil. Its oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year, seven times faster than the U.S.' Growth in Chinese oil consumption has accelerated mainly because of a large-scale transition away from bicycles and mass transit toward private automobiles, more affordable since China's admission to the World Trade Organization. Consequently, by year 2010 China is expected to have 90 times more cars than in 1990. With automobile numbers growing at 19% a year, projections show that China could surpass the total number of cars in the U.S. by 2030. Another contributor to the sharp increase in automobile sales is the very low price of gasoline in China. Chinese gasoline prices now rank among the lowest in the world for oil-importing countries, and are a third of retail prices in Europe and Japan, where steep taxes are imposed to discourage gasoline use."
http://www.iags.org/china.htm
As for the reason the US consumes Oil in comparison with China - it is both due to gas guzzlers like the SUV -
but also because the US is a large spread out country.
China is much more densely populated and therefore less spread out. Less spread out means less cause to travel less distance in the course of an average day.
Ultimately the US consumer will have NO CHOICE but to adopt more fuel efficient cars - because the economics will dictate it.
as for the "competitive disadvantage - well Nate I am glad you asked.
gave me a chance to explain some rudamentary economics.
The economy is tied to the price of Oil - most industries use Oil and an increase in Oil prices directly effects their profits (see the two major airlines that declared bankrupcy just this week)
and also because the average consumer has to fill their car so an increase in gas prices directly decreases their disposible income and effects their ability to spend money on consumer products.
so it pinches the economy in both directions - both in the cost of producing the item or sercive - and in the consumers ability to buy it.
China already has basically the cheapest Gas in the world outside of actual oil producers.
their cheap oil is fueling the explosive growth of their economy.
The US and China are fastly becoming the two greatest economic powers on the planet and are destined to become direct competitors.
Therefor the US cannot allow itself to be at a competitive disadvantage with China -
how is it a disadvantage you say -
The more refining is involved the more expensive the Oil is - the more environmentally friendly the emmissions are the more refining is required.
So if the US obligates itself to refine oil to a far greater extent then China is refining theirs - then there is an added cost in the price of Oil that the US has to pay and China does not -
this is what you call a competative disadvantage.
I hope I cleared that up for you.
next time if you wish to disagree please do so more respectfully.
The real solution - which I think Tony Blair understands - is to get China and India to the table - and get all 3 countries to sign the accord -
- or draft a new accord which the major consumers - namely the US and China - can more easily adopt.
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nGr8
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 19, 2005 - 05:34 AM
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dear mr. luke,
i am sticking by the original calculations which were based on the national oil demands per year according to the original source (the one which you yourself provided).
more importantly, there seems to have been a misunderstanding regarding my last message.
Originally posted by nGr8
luke, exactly what "competitive disadvantage" does the US suffer from that the 141 countries that have ratified the agreement do not?
the emphasis was on the last part. i take full responsibility for not making that clearer. i was trying to say that every country in the world could use your reasoning and say "if the US (by far the largest energy consumer) isn't doing it, then why should we?". Yet 141 countries have. are they seeing something you don't?
Originally posted by luke
this is what you call a competative disadvantage.
I hope I cleared that up for you.
as it turns out, i'm an economist and don't really need your lecture on competative(sic) disadvantage. one day perhaps i'll return the favour and give you a lecture about comic books :-)
Originally posted by luke
The real solution - which I think Tony Blair understands - is to get China and India to the table - and get all 3 countries to sign the accord -
the US WAS at the table. and it DID sign the accord.
(alas, signatures aren't what they used to be, are they?)
what it comes down to is this. no matter what the accord is, it will always be possible to use the argument that "I'm not doing it 'til he does". to me, this is juvenile and leads nowhere.
next time if you wish to disagree please do so more respectfully.
my apologies, friend. i hadn't realized you were so sensitive.
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Luke Lieberman
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Re: Would Katrina make the US revise its policy towards the Kyoto Treaty ?
September 19, 2005 - 07:32 AM
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Nate,
My friend I am not aware that the US EVER signed the Keyoto accords.
So I don't know why signatures have anything to with it.
I would like to see a more forward leaning environmental policy - but regardless of what I might want, I know they simply are not going to sign it.
And the real point is not only that 141 countries have signed it -
- there is also the matter that BOTH the largest consumers have not. And India will be the third largest within a decade and it has not signed it either.
competition might be juvenile - but it is a powerful force.
But there are other foces besides competition with regards to American use of Fuels.
The simple fact that Gas prices ARE rising now due to upward pressure from China's growing demand - uncertainty in the Middle-East, and Katrina's recent demolition of much Oil producing capability in the Gulf.
In point of fact the President declared 2 weeks amnesty of any real environmental protections to stabilize the price of Oil and avoid a recession.
I just don't see Keyoto happening right now.
But what is happening are polls of American people who are fed up with SUV's - something like %70.
I think market forces will push the new, more efficient fuel technologies out the door faster and Americans are going to start buying more efficient cars.
The demand will grow as Gas prices continue to hike.
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Drop
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RESCUE OFFICER
September 20, 2005 - 04:09 AM
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ENVELOPMENT OF SAVING "COLOBOC"
SPIRAL TECHNIQUE OF BREAK.
In connection with augmentation of solar activity, physical and
inundations, fires, hurricanes it is offered to realize the project of
reforming and remodelling of effecting heat-reflective suits for
firemen-rescuers, lees for fishermen, tourists, tent a type jurt
for refugees, and others suffered from acts of nature.
It is offered to arrange the thrown mill for effecting the sports
and fire-prevention equipment, manufacture of universal envelopments
with use of the new spiral technique based on principles of topology of
spiral moleculas of DNA, chromosomes, ribosomes and V.G.Shuhova's
reticular constructions. Production of the first stage can be harmonious
mobile envelopments for militarians, fire - rescuers, tourists, fishermen
and for usual citizens.
As an obvious model of body height of effecting of envelopments,
regularities of processes of embryonic development of the person and
a mycelium in working scaffolds will be used. From spores-цветков-gauls
of socially focused advertising actions with use of pilot product samples,
the project grows in a mycelium - mills and workshops with flexible and
ecologically pure work cycle. Advertising actions for progression of
envelopments of saving on the international market " the Small Native
land " from children's home №4 is recognized schedule to spend with
participation ecotheatra, artists of Petersburg and Moscow. For diffusion
at large international exhibitions disks about a slide of show on which
opportunities of use of envelopments will be shown will be prepared a
compact set. For post dispatch as the visual aid on a surviving series of
comics with getting in different extreme situations Colobcom in an
envelopment are drawn. The most interesting plots will be printed on
round packages for packaging of the goods from supermarkets. For the
beginning we already have a performance created at support ABOUT
the United Nations the SQUANDERER, " Adventures Colobca ". Project
mobile ecotheatra with use of envelopments of saving is supported by
fund of a name of D.S.Lihacheva.
Productive capacities are recognized schedule counting upon monthly
consumption of envelopments in an amount of 1000 pieces. Through an
informational web, sports magazines and supermarkets. Cost of a personal
envelopment for self - saving made on rotor pipeline with manual assembly
- 100 $. The Such harmless small enterprise allows to create 50 workplaces
for experts and 50 for people with the restrained opportunities.
Effecting can be adjusted even in city core as it has no waste and noise.
For example in any workshop or a forge.
Expenditures and incomes increase in 100 times at start of a computer-aided
manufacturing by means of robots. Heat-reflective envelopments for
operation of firemen at the price of will not be will distinguish from the best
foreign analogs. Harmonious the framing of a reticular envelopment is
protected, the copyright certificate and the certificate on a beneficial model.
In three years of operation in the market and deriving of profit,
reconstruction and dilating of effecting for discovering a purpose-built
web of magazines and manufactures of envelopments of the second
stage is recognized schedule: ECOHOUSE in diameter of 10 meters for
autonomous ECOsettlement, and further for unique sports-concert buildings
of a type of roofed-in tennis courts, water areas and baths span up to
50 meters. During recession of demand for basic production, effecting on
manufacture: a film-theatrical requisite, advertising modules and small
architectonic shapes for an accomplishment of lots municipal and a private
property.
Materials for manufacture of envelopments - a spring wire, marks:
65G, 70, 50HFA, 50HG, diameters - from 1,5мм. Up to 10 mm.
At the price is three times more dear than a usual building wire,
engineering marks in 5 times are stronger, and it under condition of,
formations of bonds without welding and drillings, on bolts or rivets,
reduces specific consumption of materials and complexity in 3 times.
Thus in a building conditions in boreal and remote neighbouring
communes terms of construction ecoeffective buildings reduced in 10 times.
One million people, for a month, from a ready panel of the house in the
container 2,5 on 3 meters can construct to itself a safe and autonomous
roof above a head.
This that as to perspectives of construction and safe buildings.
And today, to save in the big project it is necessary to find the order
for manufacture of a small lot of envelopments of saving for firemen.
It is uneasy.
Not many enterprises and fire - saving calculations interest to invest in
a new product. That who excretes means, does not work in the locus of a fire.
The author of the given project himself has worked the fireman -
the rescuer of 13 years and well knows all deficiencies of the fire
equipment and heat-reflective suits as they "effectively" rescue
from thermic and chemical burns. The heat-resistant material with
impregnation and strengthened by a spring framing made on spiral
technique allows not only to resist effectively to a flame, but also
protects from impact of an electric arc. Today these materials use
power engineerings for the guard at operation on power stations.
The offered envelopment of saving for firemen "COLOBOC" with use
of nonflammable materials allows to increase a time in use of a fire fire
in the locus in 3 times, and at a three-layer coating with regional alveoles
filled by foam of an average multiplicity, in 6 times. Thus, give thanks
capacity of an envelopment, in it it is possible to output the victim from
a flame. The envelopment of saving "COLOBOC" differs that give thanks
to a reticular framing and regional frame of an awning with filling from foam,
heat-shield the layer between the fireman and a flame can be increased in
tens times and is filled by foam. The envelopment can use at quenching
forest fires and oil wells. Speed of its putting on makes 5 seconds, that in
5 times is faster than at clothing usual heat-reflective than a suit. Weight
of an envelopment of 6 kg. Also can be lowered at use of a framing from
composite materials. Thus in it it is much more convenient to work, because
it does not hold down locomotion of a body and arms. The fireman transfers
it on the shoulders and a girdle to a place of work and it is independent,
resting on a priming coat costs, instead of hangs on the fireman. The fireman
during this moment can freely work, save the life and life of other people,
being in such safe lee. In the combined sort it does not borrow a lot of place.
"COLOBOC" can serve as a backpack and a sleeping bag. Considering high
performance a functional performance and multifunctionality of an envelopment,
to it is not present analogs in the world. Therefore in connection with forecasts
for a great demand for such envelopments in the world market expediently
deriving on itinternational the patent, both for a construction, and for a method
of its manufacture.
With little changes in a construction of an awning of an envelopment it can
with success use as boat, for example for fishing and simultaneously to serve
as lee from a bad weather and mosquitos. The problem of saving of fans of
winter fishing, by means of envelopments "COLOBCOVS" can be solved without
participation of the helicopter or the hovercraft.
I would like to live till that time when in everyone fire - saving calculation
there will be an envelopment "COLOBOC", and the reindeer breeder or the
oilman of the North can enter into the cosy and safe house - an
envelopment and will belucky person .
If ourselves we shall not construct the future, such in which we wish to live,
what for us waits? Matter not only in difficulties of introduction new, we
should change the attitude to an event, differently we do not have future.
Jury Shevnin.
The SUMMARY.
Today all world aspires to create general space of safety. How it can be
made if safety of one person, for example the fireman-rescuer providing
general safety poor neither the new equipment nor new materials? Architecture
of effecting of the universal saving envelopments, differing themes Is offered,
that they due to a harmonious reticular construction and modern materials
provide greater volume of safe space for operation in extreme conditions of a fire.
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