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Common-Man
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Population of India
August 9, 2005 - 12:17 PM
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Just quoting from the cover story of a magazine:
"India has been growing at a rate of 5-6 % since the economy was opened up in 1991 and China at a rate of more than 9 % since its economic reforms were initiated in 1978. Clyde Prestowitz, President of the Economic Strategy Institute, US and a former trade negotiator in the Reagan Administration predicts that in his article "The Great Reverse". By the year 2025, China's GDP will be $16 tn from the current $ 2 tn and India's will be about $5 tn from the current $ 700 bn. Comparatively the US GDP will be around $ 21 tn from the current $ 11 tn, considering the average rate of US growth in the past 40 years. If these figures are anything to go by then it shows a dramatic transition and narrowing of the gap between the West and the Asia"
"The proverb 'History repeats itself may hold good in India and China's case. During the 18th century the two Asian behemoths accounted for more than half of the global GDP. In 1820, China generated about a third of world output(measured at common international prices) and India accounted for 16 %. But the 19th and 20th centuries saw the fall of the Asian Titans and the rise of western Europe and Northern America. By the mid 20th century China's share of the world output was 5 % and India's a mere 3 %. By the end of 20th century, US and Europe were responsible for two-thirds of the global GDP, Asia accounted for only 20%. While industrialised mass production and new manufacturing technology were primarily responsible for the rise of their western counterparts, imperialistic rule was responsible for the downfall of the Asian Giants."
While I agree with most of what this article says, I do not really subscribe to this to much optimism about the futures of India and China. I have reason for that.
While the above source predicts a huge leap in the GDP, some other sources also predict a proportionate growth in the in the populations of the two countries. Let me present some predictions regarding population growth. By 2025-2030 India would near 1.5 billion population. By that time she would have overtaken China in terms of population. By around the same time China would be nearing about 1.4 bn people. At the same time USA would be hardly having hardly 400 million people.
So if we talk interms of a ratio of Population to GDP, one can clearly make out how far India and China would be from USA and many other countries in terms of human living standards and poverty among a certain section of society. What we should actually note is that it is Indian Corporates that are growing and not the common man. Agreed that the growth of corporates would create new and more opportunities for the general public but the policies of the govt. should ensure that the benefit of the growth of GDP reaches to all sections of society. Unfortunately, this doesn't happen in India.
What do you think?
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Matt Trotter
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Re: Population of India
August 10, 2005 - 09:42 AM
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China's current GDP is (i think). $7.262 trillion. Eg. Very large already!
China has good prospects economically as (among MANY other things) they have been able to control their birth rate significantly. Though by doing this they have in many peoples eyes violated many persons human rights.
As China develops it will be increasingly hard for the world to support her. Many problems for the global environment. I dont know what the solution is though.... any ideas?
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Common-Man
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Re: Population of India
August 12, 2005 - 01:09 AM
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Hi Matt,
It's difficult to think of any immediate solutions. The problem is well beyond the control, atleast in India.In India, education is actually the key to every major problem. But nobody is really interested in spending more on education. An average educated man in India is engrossed in putting his creer on the right track till the age of say 30 years. With this the marriage is also delayed and the procreation among the educated people is delayed. Thus the gap between every two generations increases reducing the birth rate. This is although not substantial because a majority of people in India are uneducated. Also with education comes the responsibility towards one's family as well as towards the society which a normal man would automatically shoulder. We see that generally educated people in India have only one or two children. Infact there would also be many people like me who may not be really interested in having a family. But when it comes to others who are poor and uneducated and see children as a future source of income and the more that you have them, the more secure they would be in the old age, you see only a hopeless future. What can I do if I can't make that man who is fucking in his hut in that slum to wear a condom? Afterall this is a democracy. The constitution does not say that you have to fuck with a condom on! Nor does any religion say that. You may be required to pay namaaz that many times or to do idol worship on a certain holy day, but you are not required to wear a condom. Nowhere. It is only at your discretion. So such is the problem.
But also there is another side to it. When I think in terms of economy, 'the more the population, the better is the economy'. Ever played the 'Age of Empires'? Somebody who has played would know how easy it is to further your empire if there is a huge workforce at your disposal supplying resources when your millitary is busy at war. You see what USA is doing? The bigger the economy, the bigger are the military campaigns. I am not pro war, but this too is an angle of view. That is why a country neighboring China has to be as smart as them.
What do you think?
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Anu Jaanu
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Re: Population of India
August 14, 2005 - 04:39 AM
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Giving the rate of illiteracy in India, the population will be on a steady rise. Because these people will then have many children of their own, who will in time have many of their own. Unless, some of these kids decide to break the barrier and get an education. That does not seem very likely because of the religious discrimination rampant in the country. Unless they can bribe someone to 1) Let their foot in the door of a school, 2) Get these teachers to actually teach, instead of just sit on their ass and do nothing (which is the trend with MANY teachers there!) and then 3) Bribe their way into a job afterwards, it's not likely this circle of poverty/illiteracy will break. I.e. Population will continue on a steady rise...
- MMeX
P.S. - The educated ones are desperate to leave the country for the future of their 1 or 2 children. Unless they got nowhere to go, then they are pretty much stuck and struggling. I.T. may be all the rage there now (and for how long?), but the other job opportunities are not easily available to you.
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Common-Man
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Population of India
September 15, 2005 - 11:33 AM
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You are right MMeX!
Population will continue to grow till a point where it will be a serious concern for the rest of the world. I am worried about that point.
However I see population as an asset - an asset that if properly utilised, can be like a gold mine for us. But looking at the conditions, I feel that's very difficult. The population is going to be more of a burden for us.
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Common-Man
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Re: Population of India
September 16, 2005 - 12:13 PM
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Originally posted by MadammeX
P.S. - The educated ones are desperate to leave the country for the future of their 1 or 2 children. Unless they got nowhere to go, then they are pretty much stuck and struggling. I.T. may be all the rage there now (and for how long?), but the other job opportunities are not easily available to you.
I don't agree with this.
Do you men to say that the people of one of the fastest growing economies in the world do nothing else?
IT is our speciality! But we're into everything. Maybe it's your ignorance that is speaking. I think now it is time for people like you to outsource the job of increasing population also to us.
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